Isn’t that how you build a case? You load it with proven fact

Our ability to predict the weather, actually our ability to predict almost anything long-term, is feeble at best. I just finished Dan Gardner’s Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail – and Why We Believe Them Anyway and it was loaded with information and statistics about how our predictions about the stock market, housing values, human demographics … pretty much anything and everything, fail. Most of the time we would be as successful if we flipped a coin when making these decisions.

Towards the end of the book Gardner starts discussing climate change, a favourite topic of mine. Gardner believes in climate change but he is skeptical of the climate models to forecast changes in our climate years, decades or centuries out.

“Climate scientists are quite blunt that there is lots about climate that science does not understand, which is precisely why scientists find the field exciting to work in. Combine that ignorance with the almost indescribably complex interactions at work in the massive, non-linear systems that make up climate and there are huge uncertainties woven into every climate prediction. … These models may overestimate the extent of climate change and the damage it does. But the may also underestimate it…”

But even if science is underestimating climate change there are still some other benefits to doing projects that lower ones carbon footprint. Gardner argues the economics, social and environmental cost of carbon accounting schemes. ‘Carbon sequestration’ (pumping CO2 into the ground) will be a waste of money if our climate predictions do not pan out. But he argues the opposite case for methane capture off landfills – it’s win-win-win. Economically you make/save money by capturing a resource naturally emitted from a landfill. Socially, the harmful methane is captured from our atmosphere and has decreases our negative health impacts. And environmentally one reuses a gas that would otherwise be harmful to the atmosphere for electricity production.

Carbon taxes actually have a similar effect, or they can. Raise the carbon tax and cut other taxes. Under this scheme one then also raises the “effective price of fossil fuels thus making alternative energy more competitive.” Europe got it right. After the price crash of oil in the mid-80’s Europe decided to keep fuel prices artificially high with taxes. Thus research and development in conservation and alternative fuels continued. And what do we see today? Alternative energy in Europe is competitive, and they now rely on it and have to rely less on fossil fuels.

I enjoyed Gardner’s book. At times it was a little overwhelming with the amount of data he presented debunking our science of predictions, but again that was the point. He wanted to hammer the point home that we cannot make predictions about our future. The future is chaotic, non-liner … unpredictable, and as a scientist/engineer I find that exciting.

Why is flying the most sustainable?

The triple bottom line analysis consider the economic (the raw cost of travel), the environmental (my carbon footprint) and equity (the social cost).

The Economic Cost

I decided to redeem some travel rewards so the flight cost me $161.88 (for taxes, security and admin fees). The least expensive ticket one can book according to Expedia this morning was $499. When I looked earlier in the week both Air Canada and Porter had seat sales on; flights were $338. Given that I booked the flight earlier in the week I’ll use the $338 value in my analysis.

Via rail is Ontario’s only rail carrier. You can take the GO train within the Greater Toronto Area but it does go beyond the GTA borders. When I looked at booking it was $155, but when searching today it was $202.50. (And knowing me I would have bought my ticket at the station today!)

If I was going to drive I’d have to spend $117.68. According to fueleconomy.gov my car requires premium gasoline and goes 11.5km/L on the highway. The round trip distance is 888km and for simplicity I’ll say that the drive is all highway kilometres (10km total is not on the highway). Thus it will require 78L of fuel (round up to 80L and ignore any congestion encountered on the way). Gas was $1.47.1 at my corner gas station according to Toronto’s Gas Prices this morning.

Summary: Flight: $161.88, Train $155, Drive $117.68

The Environmental Cost

The carbon footprint cost. How much damage am I doing by going to Ottawa? According to Carbon Finance one could sell a tonne of carbon on the European market for €12.32 or $16.64CAD today.

When I booked my flight Air Canada stated me that the total carbon footprint for my portion of the flight round trip was 0.21tonnes of CO2 emissions for a value of $3.49.

According to CarbonFund.org each km of long distance rail travel emits 0.49lbs/mile or 0.12kg/km. The Toronto Travel Guide says it’s 446km, which totals 107kg (.107tonnes) of CO2 emissions round trip or $1.78.

The footprint of my car is 174g/km according to NextGreenCar but that is based on a combined urban and highway driving. For simplicity I’ll use this value, so for my 888km my calculated footprint would be 154kg (.154tonnes) of CO2 emissions, bringing the total cost to $2.56.

Summary: Flight $3.49, Train $1.78 or Driving $2.56.

The Equity Cost

It comes down to what I value my time at. I remember when I wrote my thesis (in 2007) that the average value for an hour of work was $20. I could have valued at what my current salary pays me at, or I could have been a little more conservative and used my ski coaching salary. Both of these were greater than $20 so I think I’ll stick with that (Note: I do value my time more than $20/hr! )

Ignoring the time it takes to get to each mode of travel here is what the cost breakdown is for travelling to Ottawa.

My flight is 1hr gate to gate, probably 40mins in the air. Roundtrip, $40.

The train varies between a 4 hr&24min trip and 4hr&48min trip, for an average of 4hrs&36mins. Cost of my time to take the train roundtrip is $184.

For the drive lets assume I drive the speed limit, the 444km trip would take just under 4.5hours. Round trip the total cost would be $190.

Summary: Flight $40, Train $184 or Drive $190.

From the table you can see that the cost of flying is by far the cheaper option. Even if I only valued my time at $10 it is still significantly cheaper to fly, driving is $30 more than flying and taking the train is more than $60 more. However, if I’d had to pay for the full price ticket (at $338) it would make flying the least viable option; I guess that reminds us all to collect and redeem those travel miles!

(Note: This was a quick, basic way to calculate my triple bottom line total cost of travel. I do not claim that it is the most accurate method to calculate the cost of traveling. This exercise was merely meant to demonstrate the ability to account not just for economic costs but also the environmental and equity (social) cost).

The race directors had created a ‘Green Page’ listing all the things they would do to minimize the footprint of the race. Their initiatives included:

• Recycling From Start to Finish
• Composting the paper cups and food
• Re-usable goodie bags

(To read more about their initiatives click here)

When I arrived at the expo to pick up my race kit I received my gift bag filled with delicious snacks and many flyers that I wasn’t interested in. In the end I had to throw a whole bunch of unnecessary flyers into my recycle box

My big complaint with the race was the number of sponsored plastic, water bottles at the end (go to the website to see the sponsor). With all the discussion about how bad plastic bottles are for the environment I was amazed to see so many at the race. If I had to hazard a guess, I suspect there was at least one bottle per person racing – at minimum 20,000 plastic bottles! Despite being dehydrated and in need of water I refused to take the plastic bottle.

How could you make a race ‘greener:’

• No more bottled water at the end – again have the refillable compostable cups that can be used for both water and other sports drinks
• Have a table with flyers for participants, which allow them to choose which races, events, etc they are interested in
• Make sure numbers are printed on recycled paper
• Make race shirts out of sustainable cotton or other recycled materials

Running races have their inherent pollutants, the little cups you drink from along the way, the race numbers/bibs, the packages from the sport gels, and various other bits of garbage that are found along the way. There are necessary evils with anything and I the positive social benefits

Our membership demographic is weighted to those who are ‘older’ (more people in the >40 category than the <20) and the majority of people still like to receive their publications bi-annual publications in print. As my bf once said ‘print is dead,’  I’m looking for ways to reduce the footprint of the magazine.

Steps we’ve taken so far to make sure it is more sustainable

1. Sourcing paper from recycled and sustainable sources
2. Mailing the publication to households instead of to each member (sometimes we would have up to three duplicates in one house)
3. Limiting the number of pages (extra content will be available in our blog style website)

But I am trying to find other ways to save energy and costs. Any suggestions?

As we try to increase the percentage of younger people staying in the organization we have decided to employ more digital and social media tools, which also help to decrease our print publications. We had a facebook fan page last year and we’ve now added twitter and the ‘blog’ I mentioned above.

Trying to produce a publication to appeal to both is not the simplest task but I do enjoy the challenge – I’m able to combine a few of the things that I truly enjoy in life.

The Voluntary Human Extinction Movement

Towards the end of the article there was a small statement about the effects of children on the environment. The argument is that as you add another person to the planet you increase your carbon footprint by adding another person. Thus to really minimize your footprint on the earth you shouldn’t have children.

Meet VHEMT (pronounced vehement) a movement (and as they say, not an organization) to stop breeding.

“The Movement presents an encouraging alternative to the callous exploitation and wholesale destruction of Earth’s ecology […] the hopeful alternative to the extinction of millions of species of plants and animals is the voluntary extinction of one species: Homo sapiens… us. Each time another one of us decides to not add another one of us to the burgeoning billions already squatting on this ravaged planet, another ray of hope shines through the gloom. When every human chooses to stop breeding, Earth’s biosphere will be allowed to return to its former glory, and all remaining creatures will be free to live, die, evolve (if they believe in evolution), and will perhaps pass away, as so many of Nature’s “experiments” have done throughout the eons.”

Not for the faint at heart, but an interesting notion.

There might be some rational behind this. The Mayan’s predicted that the earth would see a ‘doomsday’ and mankind as we know it would be eliminated. Like the dinosaurs someone/something might be researching us in the future to uncover what caused our demise. The global warming scientists say that we are destroying our the fragile earth at an alarming rate, even calling it a ‘weapon of mass destruction‘. Some go as far to say that there is no way to reverse the damage, that we are on the path to destruction.

What are the options?

Having children is a personal decision, I’m not advocating either way. I have my opinions and will follow what I believe in. The obvious two options are have children or don’t have children. Another way of looking at it is for every couple have two children; replace yourself when you leave this earth. In the MACLEAN’s article they make a reference to the starving children in the developing countries and if we really are being selfless that we should adopt, since many of those families are large and cannot sustain themselves. Whatever decision you make just make sure it is the right one for you.

When you bring over your host/hostess gift why not bring them a card that gives back? This week I came across ‘seed cards,’ a card that when planted will grow beautiful flowers in your garden.  So not only are they made from recycled paper and other earth friendly but they produce lovely flowers in someone’s garden (and if you don’t have a garden they work well in flower pots too!)

You can buy standard cards or create your own, definitely a great alternative to a traditional wedding, shower or holiday card. Try Botanical Paperworks, Symphony Seed Cards, Beau Coup or try to find one more local to avoid the footprint from shipping.

As I try to reduce my footprint on the environment I’m always looking for innovative ways to do my share. Not only are the seed cards one more way I can help but once in bloom bring a second smile to someone.

Last week I wrote about a book I had recently read, FOOD. When I was at the grocery store last week I couldn’t stop thinking about the book and thinking about the decisions I was making when purchasing food.

Here were some of the things that got me thinking

• Where did my fruits and vegetables travel from? Chile, Mexico, China … I wanted local. I didn’t want my food to polluting the earth anymore than necessary. Plus how fresh is an apple from China?
• Fish: water, water everywhere and where did my fish swim in from? Farmed, Fresh – ok they provided that. And after talking with my friend Steve, I don’t know that I can ever again eat farmed fish.
• Bread: ok so some people say that too many carbs are bad, but sometimes I find a piece of bread toasted with butter and jam. So buy what they make at the grocery or buy generic bread? Where is the flour from? Where is the butter from? Did they use organic stuff? Maybe I’ll start making my own bread
• Meat: the butcher section is great. It tells you where it’s from. Ontario farmers I support you.

It always comes down to cost. Most of us are on a limited budget and we cannot necessarily justify purchasing only local. I guess its all about the little things you can do

Back in November I wrote an article on Blackle.com, a sustainable search engine. I guess I am questioning whether it really does reduce the carbon footprint that much? Sure the screen emits less radiation but it still returns results just as fast, pulling the answers from various sites, which likely consumes just as much CO2.

I guess the debate is still out on search engines and their carbon footprint. But if we think of it like everything in life and use it in moderation than it might be ok.

It was my first vegetable garden and it was a learning experience. Next year I’m going to branch out and double my garden size and definitely plant the zucchini in a separate area!

What can you expect with your first garden?

Urban farming is great. Eating your rewards make them almost more delicious than farmer’s market vegetables. Watching everything grow from tiny plants to feeding you on a regular basis really puts you in-tune with your surroundings. Plus when you farm your own vegetables you are carbon positive, giving back to the environment.

Having a garden definitely takes some dedication. Luckily this summer we had a wet summer, but in a regular summer expect to be watering your garden early in the morning and again late at night. It will need food; as opposed to using store bought fertilizer use your compost organics or coffee grinds (coffee grinds help to expedite the growing process).

SPIN Gardens

Want to make money with all your hard work? Enter SPIN (Small Plot Intensive). They claim that with only 1acre of land that an individual can make up to $50, 000. Add to that cost the environmental savings, the opportunity cost of protecting your local environment by producing produce at home. SPIN offers guides on-line to show you how to build your garden.

I’ve jumped on board the urban agriculture phenomenon. I can’t wait until next spring when I can plant all these new vegetables. And although I’m not in it for the financial rewards it would be great to see some SPIN farms pop up in Toronto